בעיית המומחים
מתוך The Phnomenologic Cage
(הבדלים בין גרסאות)
(דף חדש: בסיכום של בת׳ נובק על ספרה wiki-goverment היא כותבת: The Problem with Experts In his award-winning book ''On Political Judgment'', social psychologist Phi...) |
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− | בסיכום של בת׳ נובק על ספרה wiki-goverment היא כותבת: | + | בסיכום של [http://www.democracyjournal.org/7/6570.php?page=all בת׳ נובק על ספרה wiki-goverment] היא כותבת: |
The Problem with Experts | The Problem with Experts |
גרסה אחרונה מתאריך 15:35, 15 באוקטובר 2011
בסיכום של בת׳ נובק על ספרה wiki-goverment היא כותבת:
The Problem with Experts
In his award-winning book On Political Judgment, social psychologist Philip Tetlock analyzed the predictions of those professionals who advise government about political and economic trends. Pitting these professional pundits against minimalist performance benchmarks, he found "few signs that expertise translates into greater ability to make either ‘well-calibrated’ or ‘discriminating’ forecasts." It turns out that professional status has much less bearing on the quality of information than we might assume, and that professionals–whether in politics or other domains–are notoriously unsuccessful at making informed predictions.